Tokyo Real Estate in Flux: Market Momentum and Hidden Risks for Global Investors

1. What is REINS – and Why It Matters

Before diving into market trends, it is important to understand the source of our data: REINS, or the Real Estate Information Network System.

REINS is Japan’s national multiple listing service, administered by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT). Accessible only to licensed agents, it is the most authoritative database for tracking real estate listings, contract prices, and transaction volume across the country.

If you are familiar with the U.S. MLS or the UK Land Registry, REINS serves a similar role—offering professionals reliable, near-real-time insights into Japan’s property market. But our REINS totally sucks.

2. A Diverging Market: April–May 2025 Insights

According to the latest REINS data:

Contract volume for second-hand condominiums increased for the sixth consecutive month, up 21.5% year-on-year.
Price per square meter rose for the 60th straight month, posting a 3.9% YoY gain.

Yet the market shows a clear split:

In central Tokyo’s 23 wards, prices are rising but transaction volume is softening—possibly due to high asking prices or limited availability.
In suburban or peripheral areas, prices are slightly falling while the number of deals is rising—suggesting increased affordability-driven activity.

3. Tokyo Bay Area Surging Ahead

One of the most active zones is the Tokyo Bay Area (Toyosu, Ariake, Harumi), where in April:

Prices rose 1.5% month-over-month.
Listings increased 15%.

This reflects multiple factors:
Pre-sale units nearing handover, sellers aiming to realize capital gains, and improved perception of the area as a livable urban zone.

Inquiries rose sharply post-Golden Week, highlighting strong underlying demand.

4. HNW Buyers Rethinking “Prestige” Districts

In a real-world example, a high-net-worth buyer toured Tokyo’s most renowned addresses—Aoyama, Shibuya, Bancho—but ultimately selected a property in the Tokyo Bay Area.

Their reasoning:

More open street design, fewer cemeteries
Livelier retail and transport infrastructure
Greater sense of space and cost-efficiency
Comparable or superior building specs

This signals a growing trend where functionality and livability can trump traditional prestige for discerning buyers.

5. ⚠️ Speculative Resale Scheme Raises Alarm

A scandal recently surfaced involving a Chinese-run brokerage in Tokyo suspected of coordinating a resale scheme targeting a newly launched condominium.

What happened:

Dozens of Japanese part-timers were paid to apply for unit lotteries.
Each was instructed to pretend to have inherited large sums, increasing perceived financial capacity.
Around 30 units were won, with down payments secretly funded by Chinese investors.
25 units were relisted at double the price immediately after contract signing.
The volume of identical listings triggered widespread criticism.
Facing backlash, the units were quietly removed from REINS.
The operator, publicly identified online, denied wrongdoing—but few believe the claim.

Key issue: These were residential-use units, not meant for immediate resale. Filing a home loan under false pretenses may be considered mortgage fraud under Japanese law.

6. Regulatory Impact and Risks for Ethical Buyers

This case has prompted discussion within Japan’s real estate and financial sectors. Concerns include:

Misuse of proxy buyers
Undisclosed foreign funding
Abuse of residential mortgage programs

Regulatory responses may include:

Tighter loan screening, especially for non-resident borrowers
Restrictions on resale timing for new units
Greater oversight of pre-sale practices

While no direct financial losses were reported, the reputational damage to the market is real—and could result in blanket policies affecting even legitimate investors.

7. Guidance for Foreign Buyers

To invest responsibly in Japan’s real estate market:

Avoid lottery schemes or backdoor access methods.
Never apply for residential mortgages with speculative intent.
Work only with trusted licensed professionals who adhere to Japan’s regulatory framework.

At Yamamoto Property Advisory, we support global clients with fully transparent, data-driven, and legally compliant property transactions.

Final Thoughts

Tokyo offers long-term stability and value—but opportunistic or unethical practices are drawing greater scrutiny. As a responsible investor, success depends on how you invest, not just what you invest in.

Contact us today to explore secure, high-quality opportunities in Tokyo’s evolving real estate market.

Note: This article draws on insights originally discussed in the Japanese-language YouTube video
【REINSデータ速報】トランプ関税ショックによる影響はどうだった？～今だからこそ実需が買うべき理由とは～.

Content has been translated and expanded by Yamamoto Property Advisory for international audiences.

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Toshihiko Yamamoto is the founder and principal broker of Yamamoto Property Advisory, a distinguished real estate brokerage in Tokyo that specializes in luxury residential and investment properties for an international clientele. His firm caters to discerning investors seeking premier properties for personal use and income-generating whole buildings for investment purposes.A licensed realestate broker in Japan, Mr. Yamamotoholds an MBA from Bond University in Australiaand a Certified Commercial Investment Member (CCIM) designation from the CCIM Institute in the United States. His extensive international experience, having lived abroad in Australia and the United Kingdom, equips him with a nuanced understanding of global real estate trends and the unique needs of foreign investors.With over two decades of experience in international business, Mr. Yamamoto has successfully conducted business with clients from more than 20 countries. As a seasoned property investor himself, he provides informed guidance to his clients as they navigate the intricacies of the Japanese real estate market to secure optimal investments.Discover more in his book, “The Savvy Foreign Investor’s Guide to Japanese Properties: How to Expertly Buy, Manage, and Sell Real Estate in Japan,” available on Amazon, iBooks, and Google Play.Connect with us through social media on Instagram, WhatsApp, and LINE for further information and expert assistance.