Tokyo Office Market 2025–2029: Large-Scale Projects Lead Amid Tightening Supply
Tokyo’s office market is entering a new strategic phase, marked by a dual trend of concentrated supply and resilient demand. According to Mori Building’s latest report, more than 70–90% of all new office buildings supplied in Tokyo’s 23 wards through 2029 will be large-scale projects—defined as buildings with over 100,000 square meters of total floor space. This signals a sharp focus on premium-grade developments as construction costs continue to rise and tenants seek higher standards.
Development activity is overwhelmingly centered in Tokyo’s five central wards—Chiyoda, Chuo, Minato, Shinjuku, and Shibuya—which will account for approximately 86% of the supply pipeline. These areas remain the preferred destinations for top-tier tenants and the location of choice for long-term investment.
Notable Projects
-
Yaesu 2-Chome Redevelopment near Tokyo Station, led by Mitsui Fudosan
-
Shinagawa Station West Exit Redevelopment, including Toyota’s new Tokyo headquarters
Despite the scale of these projects, the average annual supply between 2025–2029 is expected to be 920,000 sqm, below the long-term average of 1.01 million sqm (1986–2024).
Meanwhile, Miki Shoji’s April 2025 snapshot of the Tokyo office market shows strong short-term fundamentals:
-
Vacancy rate in Tokyo’s 5 central wards dropped to 3.73%
-
New buildings still show elevated vacancy at 26.26%, but absorption is improving
-
Average rent rose to ¥20,755 per tsubo, up 4.69% YoY
Corporate tenants are returning to the office and prioritizing quality, location, and flexibility—especially for talent attraction and brand reinforcement.
Insight: A Market of Fewer but Larger Opportunities
The Tokyo office market is no longer about broad-based supply. It is about strategic concentration. Investors and occupiers alike should focus on:
-
Securing high-grade space in the core 5 wards
-
Monitoring large-scale pipeline projects scheduled for completion through 2029
-
Locking in long-term leases or acquisitions early, before tightening availability drives further rent escalation
As tenant behavior shifts toward “flight to quality,” supply is consolidating around fewer but larger landmark buildings. This is a signal of both risk (scarcity) and opportunity (value retention and growth).
Let’s Talk Tokyo Office Strategy
Are you planning to lease, relocate, or invest in Tokyo’s prime office market?
At Yamamoto Property Advisory, we specialize in helping foreign investors and multinational tenants secure opportunities in Tokyo’s most prestigious districts.
We provide:
-
Tailored investment guidance
-
Off-market intelligence
-
Bilingual lease and acquisition support
📧 Contact us today to explore how you can position your organization or portfolio for long-term advantage in Japan’s most resilient office market.
👉Contact us
👉 Or email: yamamoto@yamamoto-property.jp
Reference Mori building report 250522_2
#TokyoOfficeMarket
#JapanRealEstate
#OfficeInvestment
#TokyoCommercialRealEstate
#LargeScaleDevelopment
#TokyoCoreWards
#VacancyTrends
#UrbanRedevelopment
#ForeignInvestmentJapan
#YamamotoPropertyAdvisory