Statistics

Encountering the marked down properties ? : Market update January-March 2019 Investment properties

Let’s face it.

Kenbiya  (One of Japan’s major internet web sites on the real estate property for the investment) recently announced the latest market update

for the first quarter of 2019. I am quickly sharing the summary of the report today.

Price:  The average asking price 

Yield :Gross yield. It is calculated as a percentage based on the property’s market value divided by the income generated by the property

          (before finance cost/management cost/tax)

Overall Japan

Condominiums (one unit)

January-March 2019

Yield 7.36% (-0.45 points compared to the previous quarter)

Ave Price 15.51 million yen (+ 10.79 point )

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Long-lasting growth ? Market update : Japan land price 2019 -first time rise in 27 years-

(Niseko ski resort, Hokkaido)

Long-lasting growth ?

The Japanese government recently issued a report on the average land price in Japan.

It is announced every year and surveys 26,000 spots all over Japan.

Today I am sharing some key findings and forecast for the future.

Summary

Overall, the national average price for commercial land increased 2.8 percent and that of residential land edged up 0.6 percent.

The average price of all types of land in Japan’s regional areas (namely local areas) rose for the first time since 1992 last year

due to the influx of foreign tourists.

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The number of foreign tourists is sky-rocketing in Japan: Is it good timing to invest in the hotel segment ?


If you are seriously interested in the real estate investment in Japan, the hotel segment is growth potential.
The number of foreign tourists to Japan is set to rise for the seventh straight year and hit a record level of
more than 30 million in 2018.

(Chart : Number of foreign tourists, unit: 10 thousand)

The government is targeting 40 million foreign visitors by 2020, when Tokyo will host the Olympics.

Japan accepted an all-time high of 28.69 million foreign visitors in 2017, up 19.3 percent from the previous year

and the number of visitors are still on rise.

The estimated number of foreign visitors to Japan in February 2019 rose 3.8 percent from a year earlier to a record 2,604,300,

but the growth in Chinese tourists slowed.

By country and region, the highest number of visitors came from China at 723,600, up 1.0 percent from a year earlier,

according to the Japan Tourism Agency.

However, the pace of growth slowed from 19.3 percent in January with a declining number of cruise ships making stops in Japan.

South Korea was second at 715,800, up 1.1 percent, followed by Taiwan at 399,800, down 0.3 percent, and Hong Kong at 179,300, up 0.5 percent.

The number of visitors from Southeast Asia jumped in February, with Vietnam marking a 68.6 percent leap to 39,400,

Thailand up 31.4 percent to 107,800, and the Philippines up 28.0 percent to 35,200, according to the agency.

On a yearly basis, the number of foreign tourists visiting Japan surpassed 30 million in 2018.
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Japan real estate market update : Market off to shaky start in 2019 amid price dip, sluggish demand ?

Now, the real truth about the real estate market in Japan !
I am often asked about the trend of the real estate market in Japan.

The most common question is

“Is it going to come off after Tokyo Olympics in 2020 ?”

What do you think ?

It is always difficult to predict how the market will behave but we can always make some analysis.

There are a few perspectives we should focus when analyzing the market.

First, let us walk through the recent high level market trend.

Average land prices in Japan rose from a year earlier for the first time in 27 years in 2018, fueled by the increasing foreign tourists and by urban areas where redevelopment projects are ongoing.
For example, the number of foreigners who stayed overnight in Kyoto in 2017 totaled 3.53 million, a record high.

The national average of benchmark land prices as of July 1 (in 2018) rose 0.1 percent from a year earlier.

The national average of commercial land prices was stronger than the residential segments and it went up
by 1.1 percent.

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Expect home sales to continue on a downward trend ? : Japan real estate market recap 2018

Happy new year 2019 ! Year of Boar.

New year has just begun and I would like to quickly review the market using some statistics.
The data always tells you the fact. How to read the data is a key for success.
It is too early to know if housing is in another bubble in Japan (I don’t think so)
It will depend on what happens with the global economy. Unfortunately, bubbles are only recognized with 100 percent certainty
in 20/20 hindsight.

The national average standard price of land
According to the government announcement, the national average standard price of land (基準地) published in September 2018
by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport, land lots for all uses excluding forest lands nationwide
went up by 0.1% compared with the previous year, rising for the first time in 27
years since 1991. The average rate of residential areas was down 0.3% nationwide, falling for 27
consecutive years, but the rate of declines shrank 0.3% from the previous yearRead more

Japan market update. How are big players betting ? : Is it in the state of bubble ?

 

JLL-Japan (JLL is an American professional services and investment management company specializing in real estate) recently held the conference in Tokyo with 400 participants from 250 companies.

JLL reported very bullish news about Tokyo market as follows: 

Tokyo overtook London as the world’s busiest real estate market in the first quarter of 2018, with mega-deals and an unusually positive economic outlook driving demand.

Investment volumes in the Japanese capital more than doubled to US$9.1 billion in the three months to March (2017: US$4.3 billion), just beating New York (US$9 billion) and way ahead of third-placed London (US$5.9 billion).

Global deal volumes rose 15 percent to US$165 billion, making the start of 2018 the biggest quarter for commercial real estate deals since 2007. Asia Pacific transactions rose 34 percent to US$40 billion.”

Tokyo will continue to see the many office construction sites till 2020 and it would make the rental growth slow but the rents have been steady and are still rising.

According to a report by the prominent Japanese real estate consulting firm ‘Sanki shoji’, the vacancy rate of offices in upscale locations in Tokyo as of September 2018 stands at only 2.33 percent (down 0.12 percent from the previous month) and the rents have been steadily rising in last twelve months.
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THE IMPACT of NATURAL DISASTERS. Nankai Trough Earthquake : Risk in Tokyo Bay from future tsunami

Cleanup, rescue operations underway in Japan after severe rains kill over 200 people and strand thousands in the recent flooding and landslides in west Japan.

On Mar 11, 2011, a devastating 9.0-magnitude quake struck under the Pacific Ocean, and the resulting tsunami caused widespread damage and claimed tens of thousands of lives.
It also sent three reactors into meltdown at the Fukushima nuclear plant, causing Japan’s worst postwar disaster and the most serious nuclear accident since Chernobyl in 1986.
The devastating tsunami hit sites along the Tohoku coast. 
A public beach just opened in Rikuzentakata on July 20, 2018 for the first time in eight years, underscoring the destruction of sites.

In 1703, an 8.2 magnitude earthquake(Genroku earthquake) along the Sagami Trough triggered a tsunami that rippled towards Japan’s then capital, Edo. It is estimated that a couple of thousands lives were lost.
Japan has a lot of natural disasters and many foreign investors are worrying about it.
A major earthquake is expected to strike sometime along the Nankai Trough, a submarine trench running off the Japanese archipelago from around Shizuoka Prefecture in Honshu to the seas east of Kyushu.

How at risk is Tokyo Bay from future tsunami by Nankai Trough earthquake ?
The Nankai Trough is a 700-kilometer-long sea-bottom depression that runs about 100 km off the southern coast from Shizuoka Prefecture to the Shikoku region.

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Japan’s real estate price update: Price up for 3 consecutive years. Very strong growth in Tokyo buoyed by the booming inbound tourism

(Ginza, Tokyo)

The results are in. You will be surprised to learn that Japan’s real estate price -at least some spots are- is breaking the record set during the bubble period.

On July 2, 2018, the National Taxation Bureau announced the average value of a square meter of land for tax assessment as of January 1 2018.The nationwide average price went up by 0.7% from the previous year and it increased for three consecutive years. By prefecture, growth is high in the three major metropolitan areas such as Tokyo (up 4.0%), Osaka (up 1.4%), Kyoto (up 2.2%), Aichi (up 1.5%)The rate of growth is higher in all three major metropolitan areas than the previous year.The rate of growth in core local prefectures is rather high such as Hokkaido (up 1.1%), Miyagi (up 37%), Hiroshima (up 1.5%), Fukuoka (up 2.6%).Average price in Okinawa was up 5.0% and it is the highest rate of increase in Japan.
Here are some key facts.

Tokyo
In Tokyo metropolitan, the average price went up 4.0%, the five consecutive years.
Ginza Chuo-dori has broken its record high for the second year in a row.The top appreciation in Tokyo was 15.8% at Aoyama Street, Minato-ku, Aoyama 3, which is also an upscale residential area. A number of luxury brand flagship stores are located in the area.In terms of growth rate, Aoyama regained the top place for the first time since 2007.The second spot is Adachi-ku Senju 3’s Kita-Senju Station West Exit Square  and it went up by 14.5%.In addition to the revitalization of the area due to the effect of a few universities campus being relocated, the convenience to the center of Tokyo boosted it.
These are the some major and the most expensive spots in Tokyo 23 wards.
(price per square meter ‘000 yen and the growth rate)
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Is it end of booming real estate market in Japan ? : Kenbiya latest quarterly report June 2018


(Nomizo -no-taki(Nomizo fall), Chiba pref)
Is a tidal wave finished in Japan ? It is about time to to buy a property ?
Japan’s one of the major online web sites for the investment properties ‘Kenbiya’ recently announced the latest  market trend on the properties that are registered on the site in Japan.
It is not an official report by the public sectors but the research shows the quick snap shot of the market trend.The research results cover the period between April 2018 and June 2018
on properties in Japan for each market segment.
Let’s take a closer look at the result.
Overview on all Japan
Condo unit
The gross yield of registered properties is almost unchanged at 7.69% ( minus 0.02 points compared with the previous term).
The average price fell slightly to 14.24 million yen (-3.85% from the previous term).
Residential apartment building
The gross yield of registered properties rose slightly to 8.91% ( plus 0.13 points). The average price is 67.4 million yen ( minus 2.06% from the previous term).
The average price for the apartment buildings declined for the first time since 2013.
Residential condo building
Registered yield slightly increased to 8.06% (plus 0.09 points).
The average price slightly went up to 16,329,000 yen (plus 0.66%)

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New Survey Reveals the Bank loan Is the Biggest Challenge Facing in Real Estate Investment in Japan: But investors are still bullish


Are you bullish or bearish ?
Two surveys by the major institutions revealed that both institutional investors and individual investors are bullish about the real estate market in Japan.

In the survey released by the Japanese real estate research institute in May, real estate price has been rising steadily due to the recovery of corporate performance and the expectations for the Tokyo Olympic Games and Abenomics.
The survey was conducted mainly for institutional investors.
However, 72 % of respondents say the real estate investment market is seeing the peak for the time being.
83.2% of respondents say many deals with remarkably low yields are appearing, compared to 68% in the previous survey in October 2017.
A
s for the view on investment in the next coming year, 90% of respondents say they will actively continue to make investments, up one point from the previous survey.
It indicates that the general consensus is still bullish.
Only 8% of respondents say they will be stopping the making new investment. Regarding the real estate market, attention is paid to interest rate trends in the United States and the monetary policy of the Bank of Japan.

As a whole investors’ willingness to invest is very positive
Regarding market expectation, the majority of institutional investors say that the market will expand in the next 6 months in both Tokyo and Osaka.Read more