Statistics

Tokyo Metropolitan Area Housing Prices Rise for 11 Consecutive Quarters by Nomura Real Estate

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Tokyo Metropolitan Area Housing Prices Rise for 11 Consecutive Quarters

Nomura Real Estate Solutions Co., Ltd. announced the results of its

“Housing Price Trends” survey for the Tokyo metropolitan area as of April 1, 2023, on April 6.

 

The fixed-point survey is conducted quarterly, with 169 survey points.

 

The average rate of change for the first quarter of 2023 in the Tokyo metropolitan area

 

housing prices was 0.7% (the same as the previous survey),

 

marking an increase for the 11th consecutive quarter.

 

The percentage of “price increase” points rose to 31.4% (from 30.8%),

 

“stable” points decreased to 65.7% (from 66.9%), and “price decrease” points increased to 3.0% (from 2.5%).

 

By area, all regions experienced an increase for the 11th consecutive quarter.

 

Tokyo’s 23 wards increased by 1.1% (from 1.3%), Tama area of Tokyo increased by 0.9% (from 0.5%),

 

Kanagawa increased by 0.5% (from 0.3%), Saitama increased by 0.6% (from 0.5%), and Chiba increased by 0.5% (from 0.7%).

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Despite the turbulence in the residential market segment, office buildings are in shortage

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The vacancy rate is historically low in almost two decades since January 2002.

The vacancy rate of office buildings  in May in the five central wards, Tokyo (business districts, Chiyoda, Chuo, Minato, Shinjuku, Shibuya)

was announced recently by office building brokerage firm Miki Shoji in Tokyo.

The vacancy rate dropped by 0.06 points to 1.64%. 

Vacancy rate is the lowest since 2002.

Office buildings in central Tokyo continue to have very few vacancies.

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HARUMI FLAG project in Tokyo : Biggest condominium development in the history : Will it fail or succeed ?

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When the key project takes a tumble ?

The Tokyo Olympics and Paralympics will be held in 2020 summer.

The athlete’s village will be actually renovated and sold as condominiums, rental apartments, and commercial facilities after the Olympics approximately four years after the games.

The development project after the Olympics was named “HARUMI FLAG”.

It is a massive project.

In light of very defensive movement of the new condos in last several months,

many industry figures are bracing for the outcome of the sales.  

Total of 4145 condos units will be for sale and 1487 units of rental property (rental units) will be entering the rental market.

It is the biggest condominium development project by far in the industry history.

By the way, the consortium already announced that two high rise condo buildings will be also built in the site but the details are not

released yet. (the above 4145 units do not include two high rises) 

The development area (Harumi Flag) will be accommodating about 12,000 residents.

The development is a very rare joint project by the consortium of Mitsui Fudosan Residential, Mitsubishi Jisho Residence, Nomura Real Estate, Sumitomo Real Estate,

and other 10 major developers will be engaged. 

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Where is the most expensive location in Tokyo ?：Latest PER report by Tokyo kantei

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Where is the most expensive location in Tokyo ?

Ginza in Chuo-ku.

You are right. In terms of face value, Ginza is the most expensive location in Japan and those expensive

locations are commercial areas.

What about the condos relative to the ratio of rent ?

With the rise in land prices, real estate has become difficult to buy year after year.

Where is the area which is relatively cheaper than other areas in terms of the payback period using

the rent you have to pay ?

Real estate research firm Tokyo Kantei announces “Condominium PER” every year for new condos

as one of the judgment criteria.

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Encountering the marked down properties ? : Market update January-March 2019 Investment properties

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Let’s face it.

Kenbiya  (One of Japan’s major internet web sites on the real estate property for the investment) recently announced the latest market update

for the first quarter of 2019. I am quickly sharing the summary of the report today.

Price:  The average asking price 

Yield :Gross yield. It is calculated as a percentage based on the property’s market value divided by the income generated by the property

          (before finance cost/management cost/tax)

Overall Japan

Condominiums (one unit)

January-March 2019

Yield 7.36% (-0.45 points compared to the previous quarter)

Ave Price 15.51 million yen (+ 10.79 point )

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Long-lasting growth ? Market update : Japan land price 2019 -first time rise in 27 years-

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(Niseko ski resort, Hokkaido)

Long-lasting growth ?

The Japanese government recently issued a report on the average land price in Japan.

It is announced every year and surveys 26,000 spots all over Japan.

Today I am sharing some key findings and forecast for the future.

Summary

Overall, the national average price for commercial land increased 2.8 percent and that of residential land edged up 0.6 percent.

The average price of all types of land in Japan’s regional areas (namely local areas) rose for the first time since 1992 last year

due to the influx of foreign tourists.

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The number of foreign tourists is sky-rocketing in Japan: Is it good timing to invest in the hotel segment ?

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If you are seriously interested in the real estate investment in Japan, the hotel segment is growth potential.
The number of foreign tourists to Japan is set to rise for the seventh straight year and hit a record level of
more than 30 million in 2018.

(Chart : Number of foreign tourists, unit: 10 thousand)

The government is targeting 40 million foreign visitors by 2020, when Tokyo will host the Olympics.

Japan accepted an all-time high of 28.69 million foreign visitors in 2017, up 19.3 percent from the previous year

and the number of visitors are still on rise.

The estimated number of foreign visitors to Japan in February 2019 rose 3.8 percent from a year earlier to a record 2,604,300,

but the growth in Chinese tourists slowed.

By country and region, the highest number of visitors came from China at 723,600, up 1.0 percent from a year earlier,

according to the Japan Tourism Agency.

However, the pace of growth slowed from 19.3 percent in January with a declining number of cruise ships making stops in Japan.

South Korea was second at 715,800, up 1.1 percent, followed by Taiwan at 399,800, down 0.3 percent, and Hong Kong at 179,300, up 0.5 percent.

The number of visitors from Southeast Asia jumped in February, with Vietnam marking a 68.6 percent leap to 39,400,

Thailand up 31.4 percent to 107,800, and the Philippines up 28.0 percent to 35,200, according to the agency.

On a yearly basis, the number of foreign tourists visiting Japan surpassed 30 million in 2018.
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Japan real estate market update : Market off to shaky start in 2019 amid price dip, sluggish demand ?

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Now, the real truth about the real estate market in Japan　!
I am often asked about the trend of the real estate market in Japan.

The most common question is

“Is it going to come off after Tokyo Olympics in 2020 ?”

What do you think ?

It is always difficult to predict how the market will behave but we can always make some analysis.

There are a few perspectives we should focus when analyzing the market.

First, let us walk through the recent high level market trend.

Average land prices in Japan rose from a year earlier for the first time in 27 years in 2018, fueled by the increasing foreign tourists and by urban areas where redevelopment projects are ongoing.
For example, the number of foreigners who stayed overnight in Kyoto in 2017 totaled 3.53 million, a record high.

The national average of benchmark land prices as of July 1 (in 2018) rose 0.1 percent from a year earlier.

The national average of commercial land prices was stronger than the residential segments and it went up
by 1.1 percent.

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Expect home sales to continue on a downward trend ? : Japan real estate market recap 2018

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Happy new year 2019 !　Year of Boar.

New year has just begun and I would like to quickly review the market using some statistics.
The data always tells you the fact. How to read the data is a key for success.
It is too early to know if housing is in another bubble in Japan (I don’t think so)
It will depend on what happens with the global economy. Unfortunately, bubbles are only recognized with 100 percent certainty
in 20/20 hindsight.

The national average standard price of land
According to the government announcement, the national average standard price of land (基準地価) published in September 2018
by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport, land lots for all uses excluding forest lands nationwide
went up by 0.1% compared with the previous year, rising for the first time in 27
years since 1991. The average rate of residential areas was down 0.3% nationwide, falling for 27
consecutive years, but the rate of declines shrank 0.3% from the previous yearRead more

Japan market update. How are big players betting ? : Is it in the state of bubble ?

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JLL-Japan (JLL is an American professional services and investment management company specializing in real estate) recently held the conference in Tokyo with 400 participants from 250 companies.

JLL reported very bullish news about Tokyo market as follows: 

“Tokyo overtook London as the world’s busiest real estate market in the first quarter of 2018, with mega-deals and an unusually positive economic outlook driving demand.

Investment volumes in the Japanese capital more than doubled to US$9.1 billion in the three months to March (2017: US$4.3 billion), just beating New York (US$9 billion) and way ahead of third-placed London (US$5.9 billion).

Global deal volumes rose 15 percent to US$165 billion, making the start of 2018 the biggest quarter for commercial real estate deals since 2007. Asia Pacific transactions rose 34 percent to US$40 billion.”

Tokyo will continue to see the many office construction sites till 2020 and it would make the rental growth slow but the rents have been steady and are still rising.

According to a report by the prominent Japanese real estate consulting firm ‘Sanki shoji’, the vacancy rate of offices in upscale locations in Tokyo as of September 2018 stands at only 2.33 percent (down 0.12 percent from the previous month) and the rents have been steadily rising in last twelve months.
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