Japan’s Land Values in 2025: Winners, Laggards, and What Global Investors Need to Know

Tokyo Isn’t the Hottest Market Anymore — Land Prices Are Soaring Elsewhere

Introduction

On July 1, 2025, Japan’s National Tax Agency released its latest rosenka land valuation data. While often misunderstood as a purely tax-related figure, rosenka provides a critical signal for identifying momentum in the Japanese real estate market—from redevelopment corridors in Tokyo to rising secondary cities like Saitama and Chiba.

This article is based on the July 2025 Rosenka report published by Mitsubishi Estate Real Estate Services.

What Is Rosenka?

Rosenka refers to the land value per square meter assigned by the National Tax Agency for roads and parcels across Japan. These values are used to calculate inheritance and gift taxes but also serve as a standardized benchmark that reflects market movements as of January 1 each year.

Unlike actual transaction prices (jikakakaku), rosenka is more conservative and lags behind rapid changes, but it covers over 320,000 sites, offering one of the most comprehensive snapshots of nationwide land trends.

Key Takeaways from the 2025 Data

Nationwide average rose +2.7%, the largest increase since 2010.
Tokyo led the rise with +8.1% YoY growth, driven by redevelopment and inbound capital.
Ginza 5-chome remained the most expensive location in Japan for the 40th consecutive year at ¥48,080 K/m².
35 prefectural capitals posted YoY gains, suggesting broad-based recovery.

What’s Driving Land Prices in 2025?

1. Urban Redevelopment Projects
Mega-projects in Shibuya, Tenjin (Fukuoka), and Umeda (Osaka) are attracting global tenants, improving infrastructure, and boosting surrounding land values.

2. Inbound Tourism & Foreign Capital
With Japan reopening post-COVID, tourism hotspots and resort areas like Hakuba, Furano, and Miyakojima are seeing surging land values—many up over 30% YoY.

3. Construction Cost Inflation
Material and labor costs are rising rapidly. This has delayed projects in Sapporo and elsewhere, limiting supply and complicating redevelopment math.

3. City-by-City Comparison: Roadside Land Values in Key Cities (2025 Edition)

While Tokyo remains Japan’s most expensive city by land value, the pace and nature of increases vary greatly by location. This reflects localized patterns in business activity, tourism recovery, and infrastructure development.

City	Top Location (English)	2025 Value (¥K/sqm)	YoY Change (%)
Tokyo	Ginza 5-chome, Ginza Chuo-dori	48,080	+8.7%
Osaka	Kakuda-cho, Midosuji Avenue	20,880	+3.2%
Nagoya	Meieki 1, Meieki-dori	12,880	0.0%
Fukuoka	Tenjin 2, Watanabe-dori	9,680	+2.5%
Kyoto	Shijo Teramachi Higashi-iru, Otabi-cho	8,320	+10.6%
Sapporo	Kita 5-Jo Nishi 3, Sapporo Ekimae-dori	7,740	+6.3%
Kobe	Sannomiya-cho 1, Sannomiya Center Street	5,840	+9.8%
Saitama	Sakuragicho 2, Omiya Station West	5,920	+11.9%
Chiba	Fujimi 2, Chiba Station East Plaza	2,480	+11.2%
Hiroshima	Ebisu-cho, Aioi-dori	3,710	+3.9%
Yokohama	Minamisaiwai 1, Yokohama Station West	17,200	+1.4%

Regional Insights: What’s Behind the Numbers?

🔹 Saitama (+11.9%)
Omiya is benefiting from mixed-use redevelopment and improved station-area infrastructure. Its proximity to Tokyo and lower entry price point are driving both residential and office interest.

🔹 Chiba (+11.2%)
Strong rail access and suburban affordability make Chiba a rising destination for Tokyo commuters. New residential towers and improved public spaces are fueling demand.

🔹 Kyoto (+10.6%)
After pandemic-related stagnation, Kyoto is rebounding thanks to a return of tourism and high scarcity in historic commercial zones.

🔹 Kobe (+9.8%)
Retail vibrancy and urban renewal around Sannomiya Station are attracting both domestic and inbound tenants, with land values responding accordingly.

🔹 Yokohama (+1.4%)
Despite being a major metro, Yokohama’s limited growth suggests plateauing investor interest and lower relative momentum than emerging markets like Saitama or Chiba.

🔹 Nagoya (0.0%)
Despite expectations tied to the Linear Shinkansen, land prices around Meieki remained flat, likely due to construction delays and oversupply of commercial floor space.

Special Focus: Takanawa Gateway City – Global Vision, Local Reality

Takanawa Gateway City is being positioned as a next-generation smart city anchored by JR East. Major facilities opening between 2025 and 2026 include:

https://www.takanawagateway-city.com/

Tokyo International School (IB-certified, CIS-accredited)
JW Marriott Hotel Tokyo (luxury branding with MICE synergy)
Takanawa Gateway Convention Center (1,640m² + outdoor event spaces)
LiSH Innovation Hub (University of Tokyo + NUS + startups)
Poppins Nursery & Coworking (for dual-income households)

🔍 Yamamoto’s Take:
From a distance, Takanawa Gateway appears to be a perfect model of future urbanism. But questions remain:

Will it develop an organic “life layer,” or remain overly designed?
Can it attract long-term foreign residents or just serve corporate visitors?
Will there be resale liquidity in the ultra-luxury segment?

We remain cautiously optimistic. For global investors, this is not a short-term play, but a mid- to long-term positioning opportunity.

Caution: Rosenka Is a Lagging Indicator

Remember that rosenka reflects conditions as of January 1. It doesn’t account for transaction spikes or rapid redevelopment post-Q1. For a complete picture, investors should also consult:

Koji Chika (March official prices)
Kijun Chika (September appraisal values)
Actual transaction data from REINS and brokers

What’s Next for 2025–2026?

Tokyo and Osaka remain core focus areas, but value may be harder to find
Saitama, Chiba, Kobe, and Kyoto offer double-digit YoY upside
Takanawa Gateway and other mega-projects require longer holding horizons

About Yamamoto Property Advisory

We are a Tokyo-based bilingual firm specializing in high-end brokerage and investment advisory for global clients. From Aman Residences to akiya consulting, we offer tailored insights backed by data and international networks.

📧 Contact us today to explore Japan’s evolving real estate landscape.

Report published by Mitsubishi Estate Real Estate Services.