Tag Archive for risk

Buying a house in Japan ? Here’s all-too common mistakes to avoid

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We don’t need to tell you about the brilliance of Japan quality: detailed, good service and competitive price etc etc.  But for how good Japan quality in general is, it’s equally easy to screw up. Badly.
Japan’s real estate industry and construction industry are full of fraudulent companies.
A number of them are rogue (of course, there are good and trustworthy companies, too.)
You need to be very careful to deal with them.
When you build your brand-new house in Japan, you must be extra mindful because it could be a disaster if it goes wrong.
It is widely known to the industry professionals that the laws are not necessarily protecting the consumers
(customers).
Why is the owner (consumer) in so disadvantageous position ?

There are five main reasons.
1.The industry is not seeking a repeat business so they don’t look after customers well
2. High overhead cost
3. The related laws have many loopholes
4. The owner(customer) trusts the contractor  (real estate agents and builders included) too much
5. Victim’s tragic stories are not widely reported in the media.

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Pitfall of the condo unit investment in Japan : Management company and work matter

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There are many apartment buildings which are failing in the their management in Japan.If you live in the apartment buildings you have to be cautiously attentive how your building is managed.

What about the property for the investment ?

KENBIYA (major Japanese property web site) recently wrote an interesting story about the management of the residential buildings (both for living and investment) 

As an investor, perhaps the management of the building does not seem to be your business but I have to warn you that actually the management of many residential buildings for the investment is more likely to
be failing.

But Why  ?

The reason is very simple. Owners (investors) don’t care because they don’t live there.
In some cases monthly management fee (管理費）is not paid by many owners, management fee (fund) is spent improperly. In some cases someone took the money and run away.

Case 1
Serious trouble of the property for investment that were built the bubble period.
One of the relatively common examples is the an apartment in Tokyo, which is close to the city center.
These buildings (usually with units of studios) were built as a tax saving measure for salaried workers in the bubble period.

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THE IMPACT of NATURAL DISASTERS. Nankai Trough Earthquake : Risk in Tokyo Bay from future tsunami

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Cleanup, rescue operations underway in Japan after severe rains kill over 200 people and strand thousands in the recent flooding and landslides in west Japan.

On Mar 11, 2011, a devastating 9.0-magnitude quake struck under the Pacific Ocean, and the resulting tsunami caused widespread damage and claimed tens of thousands of lives.
It also sent three reactors into meltdown at the Fukushima nuclear plant, causing Japan’s worst postwar disaster and the most serious nuclear accident since Chernobyl in 1986.
The devastating tsunami hit sites along the Tohoku coast. 
A public beach just opened in Rikuzentakata on July 20, 2018 for the first time in eight years, underscoring the destruction of sites.

In 1703, an 8.2 magnitude earthquake（Genroku earthquake) along the Sagami Trough triggered a tsunami that rippled towards Japan’s then capital, Edo. It is estimated that a couple of thousands lives were lost.
Japan has a lot of natural disasters and many foreign investors are worrying about it.
A major earthquake is expected to strike sometime along the Nankai Trough, a submarine trench running off the Japanese archipelago from around Shizuoka Prefecture in Honshu to the seas east of Kyushu.

How at risk is Tokyo Bay from future tsunami by Nankai Trough earthquake ?
The Nankai Trough is a 700-kilometer-long sea-bottom depression that runs about 100 km off the southern coast from Shizuoka Prefecture to the Shikoku region.

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How to avoid the severe flooding in Japan ? : Over 200 people died in recent floods and landslides

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（From NHK)

Over 200 people have died in floods and landslides triggered by the recent torrential rain in western Japan in July 2018.

It is the highest death toll caused by rainfall that Japan has seen in more than four decades.

In Japan, 1300 municipalities released the hazard maps.

They namely pinpoint locations at risk of floods or landslides.

There was a time when the disclosure of hazard information raised many eyebrows as fanning people’s fears and lowering property values.

But after we saw the recent worst flooding disaster in west of Japan in four decades, this is no longer the case.

In the Mabicho district of Kurashiki, Okayama Prefecture, the flooded areas reportedly corresponded exactly to what the hazard map showed. To date, more than 40 bodies have been recovered from severely flooded residential neighborhoods, now blanketed with mud.

CNN report

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New Survey Reveals the Bank loan Is the Biggest Challenge Facing in Real Estate Investment in Japan: But investors are still bullish

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Are you bullish or bearish ?
Two surveys by the major institutions revealed that both institutional investors and individual investors are bullish about the real estate market in Japan.
In the survey released by the Japanese real estate research institute in May, real estate price has been rising steadily due to the recovery of corporate performance and the expectations for the Tokyo Olympic Games and Abenomics.
The survey was conducted mainly for institutional investors.
However, 72 % of respondents say the real estate investment market is seeing the peak for the time being.
83.2% of respondents say many deals with remarkably low yields are appearing, compared to 68% in the previous survey in October 2017.
As for the view on investment in the next coming year, 90% of respondents say they will actively continue to make investments, up one point from the previous survey.
It indicates that the general consensus is still bullish.
Only 8% of respondents say they will be stopping the making new investment. Regarding the real estate market, attention is paid to interest rate trends in the United States and the monetary policy of the Bank of Japan.

As a whole investors’ willingness to invest is very positive
Regarding market expectation, the majority of institutional investors say that the market will expand in the next 6 months in both Tokyo and Osaka.Read more

Now, the real truth about the real estate investment in Japan : Kabocha no Basha and Suruga Bank scandal

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In today’s uncertain economy, dynamic growth potential with low risk is tempting.
Real estate companies are constantly manufacturing the opportunities to captivate the naive investors.
Kabocha no Basha was one of them.

Suruga Bank Scandal background
Japan’s Financial Services Agency has launched an emergency inspection into Suruga Bank over investment irregularities involving women-only shared houses.
Suruga Bank extended over 100 billion yen ($915 million) in loans to about 700 people, mainly middle-aged salaried workers, to invest in Kabocha no Basha — or “Pumpkin Carriage” ; women-only shared houses operated by Smart Days.
Tokyo-based Smart Days also worked as a middle man between Suruga and investors and solicited investment from salaried workers, pledging to pay them rents for 30 years.
But Smart Days struggled with low occupancy rates and stopped paying the rents to owners they promised in January 2018.
Smart Days filed for bankruptcy in April 2018.

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How to avoid buying a house with problems in Japan : Tips for detecting a malicious defect in your property

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While inspecting any property is important, it becomes even more uppermost to check for defects found in second-hand property especially akiya (空き家abandoned houses)
In Japan’s real estate industry, it is generally assumed that there are four types of risks of ‘defects’ （瑕疵）the industry professionals usually recognize.
They are physical defects, psychological defects, environmental defects
and legal defect (issues).

1. What is a physical defect?
Physical flaws are situations where the building leaks, termites occur, and the earthquake resistant strength is insufficient.
Some common physical issues
For example, with 8 million akiya (Abandoned house, 空き家),
old houses are usually very affordable in Japan these days. However, those old houses could also come with a lot of issues that you may not be prepared for.
What seems like a great deal at first may ultimately cost much more than you originally thought.
It is always recommended to do your research before investing in real estate, particularly when the property in question is old property.
The following checklist will give you an idea of what issues to watch out for when buying a second-hand property especially an older home.
Due diligence always pays off.
You want to avoid common physical defects, problems with the construction structure. 

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Risks in real estate investment in Japan-natural disaster- : How to avoid the earthquake risk

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Japan has the risk of earthquake.
You remember the earthquake in Kobe in 1995 and Tsunami disaster in Fukushima in 2011.
Although Japan’s earthquake-resistant technology of buildings is considerably advanced than that of other countries,
we have to be realistic.
In the interest of personal safety and protecting the value of what is likely  your biggest financial asset,
prospective buyers and investors should be aware of any natural disaster risk impacting a potential property purchase.
If the building is broken or collapsed due to an earthquake, you cannot get rent.
In most cases, learning about natural disaster risk will not stop investment, but it will help investors make a better-informed decision about where to buy and preparing in terms of appropriate insurance coverage depending on the type of natural disaster risks most affecting the property.
Unfortunately we don’t have a comprehensive ‘natural disaster risk score’ covering whole Japan announced by the government or a certain institute but on the  prefecture and city level, many prefectures and cities
release ‘hazard maps’ to show the risks of natural disasters
in the area.
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How safe is Japan to invest ? and which part of Tokyo you should consider ? -crime rate-

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Do you want to buy a house or invest in Japan ?
If you’re considering an international investment property, step one is to find a good real estate agent who understands the country’s regulations,
especially if you’re not fluent in the local language.
Next question is what sort of criteria for judgement do you have in your mind for finding a property ?
If you don’t know what you’re looking for, you’ll never find it.
How about crime rate ?
Good.
Japan is safe.
Having lived in Kobe, Kawasaki, Tokyo, Sydney, Gold Coast, London
and travelled over 25 countries, I can assure it. And crime rates are an important indicator to analyze when looking for an investment property.
Buying the property in a high crime country or area can be risky not only to you, but also to your investment or even to your tenants.
High crime generally reduces the values of properties in a given area.
A study in USA for example, found that a 10 percent reduction in homicides resulted in an 0.83 percent increase in housing values the following year.
Needless to say, people in Japan do care about the safety in the neighborhood.
I am not saying that you can’t make money in areas with higher crime.
There could be a good number of investments in areas with a relatively high crime rate. There are still?plenty of good people in those areas that you can make money renting or selling to.
But the important thing is to know what you are getting into.
It is important up front to decide what kind of risk tolerance you have and what types of areas you are willing to invest in.
But how safe is Japan ?
Once you’ve decided on what kind of areas(countries) you are looking to invest in,
you can start to research them. Always ask Google first.
Here is the some statical data on some developed countries by UN, GLOBAL STUDY on HOMICIDE 2013.

UN GLOBAL HOMICIDE DATA 2013

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High yielding, guaranteed rent should be too good to be true ?: ‘Kabocha no basha’ subletting problem in Japan

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Pitfall of sub-leasing(sub-letting) real estate investment

High yielding, guaranteed rent（sub-leasing)  should be too good to be true ?
Recently one of the scandals which rattled the industry is KABOCHA-NO-BASHA
(Pumpkin Carriage) problem.
The background of the scandal is as follows.
Investors were guaranteed a fixed monthly amount over an extended period if they invested money by contracting with a real estate company called Smart Days(Tokyo)
that used the funds to set up and manage share house facilities under sub-leasing agreement.
Since 2015, Smart Days, operator of women-only share houses called Kabocha no Basha (Pumpkin Carriage), has promoted high yield investments through the media and has mainly acquired customers of office workers. In the sub-leasing contract, rent payment collected through the sub-leasing is sought to pay back the debt for a long period plus small profit.
For example, suppose you borrow 100 million yen from a bank and the monthly repayment amount is 500,000 yen, if you earn rental income of 550,000 yen a month, it will generate 50,000 yen a month profit. This system is typical leveraging in the real estate investing and there is no red flag about it.
In an ideal setting, Smart days as the sub-leasing company would rent out rooms to tenants and bring in a steady and continuous supply of rent, a portion of which would go to the investors.The shared house with shared toilets and bathrooms is not as wide as 7 m² in living space, but the initial cost of moving in is kept low (so they say), and it was expected that more women moving into Tokyo from rural cities will choose to stay in these share houses.Smart days also promoted the business to support tenants finding a job (This is an alarming part)

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