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Investing in Japan

HARUMI FLAG project in Tokyo : Biggest condominium development in the history : Will it fail or succeed ?

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When the key project takes a tumble ?

The Tokyo Olympics and Paralympics will be held in 2020 summer.

The athlete’s village will be actually renovated and sold as condominiums, rental apartments, and commercial facilities after the Olympics approximately four years after the games.

The development project after the Olympics was named “HARUMI FLAG”.

It is a massive project.

In light of very defensive movement of the new condos in last several months,

many industry figures are bracing for the outcome of the sales.  

Total of 4145 condos units will be for sale and 1487 units of rental property (rental units) will be entering the rental market.

It is the biggest condominium development project by far in the industry history.

By the way, the consortium already announced that two high rise condo buildings will be also built in the site but the details are not

released yet. (the above 4145 units do not include two high rises) 

The development area (Harumi Flag) will be accommodating about 12,000 residents.

The development is a very rare joint project by the consortium of Mitsui Fudosan Residential, Mitsubishi Jisho Residence, Nomura Real Estate, Sumitomo Real Estate,

and other 10 major developers will be engaged. 

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The number of foreign tourists is sky-rocketing in Japan: Is it good timing to invest in the hotel segment ?

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If you are seriously interested in the real estate investment in Japan, the hotel segment is growth potential.
The number of foreign tourists to Japan is set to rise for the seventh straight year and hit a record level of
more than 30 million in 2018.

(Chart : Number of foreign tourists, unit: 10 thousand)

The government is targeting 40 million foreign visitors by 2020, when Tokyo will host the Olympics.

Japan accepted an all-time high of 28.69 million foreign visitors in 2017, up 19.3 percent from the previous year

and the number of visitors are still on rise.

The estimated number of foreign visitors to Japan in February 2019 rose 3.8 percent from a year earlier to a record 2,604,300,

but the growth in Chinese tourists slowed.

By country and region, the highest number of visitors came from China at 723,600, up 1.0 percent from a year earlier,

according to the Japan Tourism Agency.

However, the pace of growth slowed from 19.3 percent in January with a declining number of cruise ships making stops in Japan.

South Korea was second at 715,800, up 1.1 percent, followed by Taiwan at 399,800, down 0.3 percent, and Hong Kong at 179,300, up 0.5 percent.

The number of visitors from Southeast Asia jumped in February, with Vietnam marking a 68.6 percent leap to 39,400,

Thailand up 31.4 percent to 107,800, and the Philippines up 28.0 percent to 35,200, according to the agency.

On a yearly basis, the number of foreign tourists visiting Japan surpassed 30 million in 2018.
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Japan real estate market update : Market off to shaky start in 2019 amid price dip, sluggish demand ?

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Now, the real truth about the real estate market in Japan　!
I am often asked about the trend of the real estate market in Japan.

The most common question is

“Is it going to come off after Tokyo Olympics in 2020 ?”

What do you think ?

It is always difficult to predict how the market will behave but we can always make some analysis.

There are a few perspectives we should focus when analyzing the market.

First, let us walk through the recent high level market trend.

Average land prices in Japan rose from a year earlier for the first time in 27 years in 2018, fueled by the increasing foreign tourists and by urban areas where redevelopment projects are ongoing.
For example, the number of foreigners who stayed overnight in Kyoto in 2017 totaled 3.53 million, a record high.

The national average of benchmark land prices as of July 1 (in 2018) rose 0.1 percent from a year earlier.

The national average of commercial land prices was stronger than the residential segments and it went up
by 1.1 percent.

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Surrounded by the forests unique kominka houses close to skiing resorts and delightful onsen hot springs in Niigata prefecture : Only 80 mins from Tokyo

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A relaxing, open plan space where each person can find their own way to chill out ?

Why don’t you try Niigata ?

Niigata prefecture is renowned for beautiful mountains and skiing resorts.

In addition, since Niigata is a major production center for high quality rice,  Niigata boasts many Japanese sake brands.

If you take Niigata shinkansen(bullet train) from Tokyo station, it takes only 80 mins to Echigo-yuzawa station.

From Echigo-yuzawa station, you can reach a number of delightful skiing resorts within one hour.

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Discover restful and super-affordable properties in Chiba Boso peninsula: Within easy reach from Tokyo

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（Boso peninsula)

* Foreigners can buy a property in Japan without having special qualification.

Explore the charming houses by the lovable ocean and beach
New listings in Boso peninsula, Chiba prefecture!
If you live in Tokyo and want to buy a second house near the ocean and beach,  I always recommend Boso peninsula (Kamogawa city, Katsuura city, Minamiboso city, Tateyama city etc). The location is excellent and it takes only 1.5 hours from central Tokyo by car.
You can drive on a highway all through to Kamogawa city from Tokyo and there is no traffic. If you don’t want to drive and rather want to indulge in drinking a beer on the way, there is very comfortable express bus service from Tokyo station. The seafoods and vegetables are nice and fresh (In fact, Chiba prefecture is a major supplier of seafood and vegetables to Tokyo Metropolitan kitchens so nice foods you are eating in Tokyo are often produce of Chiba).  Izu peninsula area in Shizuoka prefecture is also very famous for nice beaches and onsen (hot springs) but Izu’s location is not perfect. It takes about 3.5 hours by car to Izu Shirahama beach from Tokyo. In the modern busy life, proximity matters.
In Boso peninsula, they have great surf in the pacific ocean and the quality of sea water is superb.  (Believe me you can’t imagine how good the quality of water is in Kamogawa city  which is merely 1.5 hours away from Tokyo). In 2020, Tokyo Olympics surfing competition will be held in Katsuura city. According to one of my surfer friends, Boso peninsula is the best surfing spot in Japan.
Today I picked up two interesting properties in Boso Peninsula, Chiba prefecture.


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Pitfall of the condo unit investment in Japan : Management company and work matter

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There are many apartment buildings which are failing in the their management in Japan.If you live in the apartment buildings you have to be cautiously attentive how your building is managed.

What about the property for the investment ?

KENBIYA (major Japanese property web site) recently wrote an interesting story about the management of the residential buildings (both for living and investment) 

As an investor, perhaps the management of the building does not seem to be your business but I have to warn you that actually the management of many residential buildings for the investment is more likely to
be failing.

But Why  ?

The reason is very simple. Owners (investors) don’t care because they don’t live there.
In some cases monthly management fee (管理費）is not paid by many owners, management fee (fund) is spent improperly. In some cases someone took the money and run away.

Case 1
Serious trouble of the property for investment that were built the bubble period.
One of the relatively common examples is the an apartment in Tokyo, which is close to the city center.
These buildings (usually with units of studios) were built as a tax saving measure for salaried workers in the bubble period.

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Now, the real truth about the real estate investment in Japan : Kabocha no Basha and Suruga Bank scandal

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In today’s uncertain economy, dynamic growth potential with low risk is tempting.
Real estate companies are constantly manufacturing the opportunities to captivate the naive investors.
Kabocha no Basha was one of them.

Suruga Bank Scandal background
Japan’s Financial Services Agency has launched an emergency inspection into Suruga Bank over investment irregularities involving women-only shared houses.
Suruga Bank extended over 100 billion yen ($915 million) in loans to about 700 people, mainly middle-aged salaried workers, to invest in Kabocha no Basha — or “Pumpkin Carriage” ; women-only shared houses operated by Smart Days.
Tokyo-based Smart Days also worked as a middle man between Suruga and investors and solicited investment from salaried workers, pledging to pay them rents for 30 years.
But Smart Days struggled with low occupancy rates and stopped paying the rents to owners they promised in January 2018.
Smart Days filed for bankruptcy in April 2018.

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Is Kyoto still good for investment in a vacation rental ? : Two boutique guest houses

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In light of the surging inbound tourists, Japanese and foreign developers and hotel companies  have stepped up construction, with names like Hyatt, Marriott, Nomura Real Estate Development and Mitsui Fodosan building new accommodations.
We have been increasingly receiving the inquiries from overseas investors about the properties in Kyoto for vacation rentals.
Generally speaking, lots of investments money to build the hotel and private lodging are flooding in Kyoto now from both inside and outside Japan and therefore the good properties with hotel license tend change hands very quickly.
There are very attractive investment opportunities for foreign investors in Kyoto properties.
I am going to discuss the opportunities of vacation rental in Kyoto today.
Let me start with the recap on the inbound tourism market in Japan, in particular, Kyoto.
The number of foreign visitors to Japan rose 19% to a record of nearly 29 million in 2017.
The government set the road to the target of 40 million by 2020 when Tokyo will host the Olympics.
Spending by foreign visitors rose 18% to ¥4.4 trillion ($40 billion).
Tourists have transformed the face of the nation’s cities, crowding into popular destinations such as the Ginza shopping area in Tokyo, temples in the ancient capital of Kyoto and ski
areas during the winter.
For example, the number of American visitors rose 11% in 2017 to 1.24 million which accounts for about 4% of the total.
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Where are the top destinations for people seeking real estate in greater Tokyo？ : Two locations in Saitama stand out

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(Picture: Yokohama)
Recruit Sumai Co., operator of the Suumo residential information website, recently released the ranking of locations
(and train stations) where people in the Kanto region want to reside in 2018.
(Kanto region in this report  covers Tokyo, Kanagawa, Chiba, Saitama and Ibaraki)
They released the same report for Kansai region (including Osaka, Kyoto and Kobe as well.
The survey began in 2010 and has been conducted every year.
7000 people in the Kanto area responded and they are in the
age between 20 and 49. People over 50 years old are not surveyed, which naturally distorts the statistics.
Here is the ranking for 2018 and data in 2017 and 2013 are also illustrated for a comparison purpose.

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Real estate investment : Is Tokyo’s property bubble finally ready to burst ? (if any)

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The RECRUIT company (major Japanese real estate advertisement company)  released its own survey on people from greater Tokyo area (Tokyo, Kanagawa, Saitama and Chiba) who have purchased the newly built condominiums in 2017.
Over 4700 people responded.
Here is the quick summary of the report.
1. Location of condo purchased
Tokyo’s 23 wards increased its share slightly from 2016 to 43% and
20% of  respondents bought condos in “Kanagawa prefecture”. (ranked 2nd next to Tokyo 23 wards)
2. Price
The average purchase price of condos is 54.52 million yen,
(U$500,000), the highest since the survey started in 2001.
3. Trend in each prefecture
The average price in Tokyo 23 wards exceeded 60 million yen (U$545,000) for the first time since the survey began
4. Age
The average age is 38.6 years old and the households with children account for 45%.
5. Income and household
Average households total annual income is 9.44 million yen(U$89,000), Married couples account for 65%
Households with annual income of 10 million yen or more gradually increase, to 36%.  65% of households generate dual income (both husbands and wives working), the highest since the survey began in 2001.
57% of single-person households buy the condominiums within Tokyo 23 wards which is significantly higher than other households.

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